What is overfitting in machine learning models?

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Overfitting in machine learning occurs when a model learns the training data too well, including its noise and outliers, rather than just the underlying patterns. This results in a model that performs very accurately on the training data but poorly on new, unseen data, indicating low generalization capability.

Overfitting typically happens when a model is too complex relative to the amount of data it is trained on. This can be due to having too many parameters, using an overly flexible algorithm, or training for too many iterations. For example, a deep neural network with many layers may memorize specific details of the training set instead of learning generalizable patterns.

Signs of overfitting include a high accuracy or low error on training data, but significantly worse performance on validation or test data. This gap suggests the model is not learning the true distribution of the data but is instead tailoring itself to the training set specifics.

To prevent overfitting, several techniques can be used:

  • Regularization (like L1 or L2), which adds a penalty for large weights.

  • Cross-validation, to ensure the model performs well on multiple data splits.

  • Pruning (in decision trees) or early stopping (in neural networks), to prevent excessive complexity.

  • Simplifying the model, by reducing the number of features or parameters.

  • Using more training data, which helps the model generalize better.

Overall, the goal is to strike a balance between bias and variance, creating a model that captures the essential trends in the data without being misled by noise.

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